In 2016, Will Pennsylvania be the Bellweather?

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Friday July 29, 2016 · 11:03 PM PDT

2016/07/29 · 23:03

Hi kids. It has been a very long time since I’ve posted at DKos. Not that I expect a welcome wagon or much attention, but when the political itch scratches, I guess I picture DKos as remaining as a great place to post my thoughts.

In any case, I wanted to outline what may be my only pontification of the 2016 electoral year. A diary far shorter than any from years past, I’ll post a few thoughts here and maybe I’ll return as the year progresses.

In short: keep an eye on Pennsylvania, which I think, at the moment, is the bellweather state for 2016.

Now, part of this is old hat. Pennsylvania has long been considered a battleground state -- this, despite the fact that democrats have won six times in a row. Given its demographics and constituency, it is a tantalizing target for the GOP… and yet they haven't cracked the formula in recent history.

Why, then, is Pennsylvania so important this year? More after the cut.

teedz

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Thursday September 04, 2008 · 7:49 PM PDT

2008/09/04 · 19:49

I spent some time in the woods this past weekend. For me, the time spent in the woods was achingly short -- and the drive was arduously long.

I escaped the suburbs of Raleigh, NC, and met up with my friends in the small, western North Carolina town of Sylva -- and yes, small is an understatement. Oh, and you can leave out the Deliverance jokes -- it's where the thing was filmed, actually. After everyone had gathered, we left Sylva and headed for Panthertown Valley.

Camping isn't the main reason for this diary, however - although I'll pepper this entry with some photos to add a little flavour. Rather, you'll find below my first-hand, albeit anecdotal, evidence of a strong grassroots Obama movement in North Carolina.

teedz

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Friday February 15, 2008 · 8:38 PM PST

2008/02/15 · 20:38

I've come to realise I no longer have any reason to be concerned with the superdelegate issue as so vociferously argued by the HRC campaign. The reason is simple: It's a game of smoke and mirrors.

Most people are well-aware that the greatest tools a magician has at his disposal are sleight of hand and misdirection. If the magician's audience can't be misled, and can't be distracted, the magician will not have an audience very long.

This is precisely the game the HRC campaign is playing right now.

teedz

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Tuesday January 08, 2008 · 8:08 AM PST

2008/01/08 · 08:08

According to this Reuters article, The Center for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has filed a complaint against Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) for purported bribery.

WASHINGTON--(Business Wire)--Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) today sent a complaint to the Department of Justice, the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District for Louisiana and the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Texas, asking for an investigation into whether Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) violated federal bribery law by including a $2 million earmark for Voyager Expanded Learning in a bill a mere four days after receiving $30,000 in campaign contributions from company executives and their relatives. CREW also asked the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate the matter.

Of course, the interesting part of this incident is that the campaign contributions came from none other than Bush friend, Randy Best.

More below...

teedz

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Monday July 30, 2007 · 8:07 PM PDT

2007/07/30 · 20:07

(Cross-posted at It'll Hurt if I Swallow!)

So here we go again, folks. People are pissed that their iPhones batteries are non-replaceable... and the pissed people are suing.

Isn't this deja vu all over again? Didn't the same sort of thing happen with the ipod? Didn't people get completely pissed about the idea of such an expensive battery replacement, only for Apple to eventually lower the cost, settle the class action, and play the damage control game that they're so good at?

teedz

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Tuesday May 29, 2007 · 1:38 PM PDT

2007/05/29 · 13:38

I think any reports on the demise of a John McCain nomination are greatly exaggerated. In fact, I think he will be the cornerstone of a strategy to hold together the a GOP ship, at least for the time being. As much as I wish I could write this off as cynicism and snark, but I'm thinking there's the perfect storm brewing for such a scenario, morbid as some of the aspects may sound.

First of all, I'll preface this with the following notion. As much as people like to think that the choice for VP nominee is of stellar importance in a presidential race, such a concept has, time and time again, been shown to be untrue. For example, as much as the Dems would like to believe that a "southern state" candidate will help them pick off electoral votes in the south, it hasn't, and won't.

That said, I think there will be a strategy for the GOP's nomination, but not for all the traditional reasons. No, I don't think they'll name someone who they think will strategically help them win. Rather, I think they'll name someone who doesn't have a lot of exposure -- and won't, even as a veep nod, specifically because people don't pay attention to him/her?

Confusing? Probably, on its face it sounds at very least fairly contrarian, but there's a method to the madness.

teedz

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Monday January 15, 2007 · 11:00 AM PST

2007/01/15 · 11:00

Many moons ago, I wrote an entry called The "Winning Team" Theory, in which I postulated that the GOP, at the peak of its prowess post-2004 election, was able to push the more radical ideas of some of its base, simply because the GOP was the "in crowd", and people will generally do whatever they can to be part of that crowd. Enacting absurd, last-minute Schiavo legislation? Go ahead! Continued pounding of the war drums? Sure! Invading the privacy of millions of Americans? Terrific! The GOP was able to get away with this precisely because they were the clique and everyone wanted to be one of the debutantes.

I never thought that the GOP was owned by the Christian right. Rather, I felt that they were using a plank of the Christian Right under which they could rally all the troops... and they were able to do so, not because everyone believed in the idea so much as they wanted to ride the braggadocio-laden coattails of the clique.

Following the 2006 election, I feel even more confident that this theory holds water -- and I've found some evidence in a very interesting place -- the Free Republic "freepathons". Read on...

teedz

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Wednesday November 08, 2006 · 12:32 PM PST

2006/11/08 · 12:32

So what are we seeing, this day after the 2006 elections?

First there's Rumsfeld's resignation -- which honestly shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone... when you have people calling from within the military for it, that stings more than any partisan attack.

But what do we see next? Oh-ho! Have we, dare I say, forgotten Poland? Lest we have, the newest news from our most referenced ally of the 2004 election is that they're saying they were misled into joining the war?

More below... Read More

Out on a limb: Baker findings the GOP's October Surprise?

teedz

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Thursday October 12, 2006 · 12:28 PM PDT

2006/10/12 · 12:28

So what do we have so far:
* So that snotrag Newsmax tells us that Rove has assured Republicans of an "October Surprise"

In the past week, Karl Rove has been promising Republican insiders an "October surprise" to help win the November congressional elections.
President Bush's political strategist is also saying that the final two weeks before the elections will see a blitz of advertising, and the Republican National Committee is deploying an army of volunteers to key locations to help the grass-roots effort and monitor the elections.
The RNC is offering to fly in volunteers and cover their expenses.
Rove is not saying what the October surprise will be.

* Then, we have James Baker, of all people, who heads up the Iraq Panel and is all over the news.

* Next, we have conventional wisdom out there is that Bush will approve, at least in the release of its findings, whatever conclusion the committee comes to.

(More...) Read More

Talkin' Ma Bell Merger Monopoly Blues

teedz

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Monday August 14, 2006 · 4:41 PM PDT

2006/08/14 · 16:41

We all know that years ago, when Ma Bell was all big and powerful, she was chopped up by the authorities in the name of offering better service and choice to the American consumer. Over the last 5 years, however, we've seen mergers roll across the industry, especially in the new mobile phone market. Although initially and occasionally there have been small echoes of cynicism and flares ups of "renewed monopoly" talks, these have generally been hushed or ignored. "This will bring more choice to Americans!", supporters and corporate noise boxes say.

Well, let's take a look at some things I've noticed...

(read on...) Read More

Nobody Knows You When You're Down and Out (Lieberman Redux)

teedz

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Wednesday August 09, 2006 · 8:28 AM PDT

2006/08/09 · 08:28

(with apologies to the many who have sung this terrific song).

I've taken an old classic, and put together a few new verses for it. Maybe someone more talented than I could record it.

Nobody Knows You When You're Down and Out: 2006

Once I lived the life of a Sena-taire,
Spit on my voters, I just did not care.
Rebuked Bill Clinton, an unkind attack,
Voted for cloture and war in Iraq...

Then I began to fall so low,
Lost the primary, I did not have nowhere to go.
I get my hands on some respect again,
I'm gonna hang on to it with a goofy grin.

(continued...) Read More

Release a statement, MyHostCamp

teedz

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Tuesday August 08, 2006 · 2:52 PM PDT

2006/08/08 · 14:52

MyHostCamp, it is time for you to cover your ass.

At the time of this posting, if you go to Google news and search for lieberman hacked, you'll see close to one hundred news stories perpetuating the Lieberman campaign's story that their website was hacked. There are even two references on the front page:

* Democrat's Senate campaign alleges (The Age)
* Lieberman campaign says Web site hacked (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)

The Lieberman campaign is making thinly-veiled statements that the Lamont crowd is behind it -- but in the end, but for a system to be hacked, there would have to be either:

* A failure of the Lieberman campaign to adequately implement security in their PHP web-scripting, or
* A failure on the part of MyHostCamp to implement adequate system security measures.

In both situations, the onus falls, either directly or indirectly, on the host... and it's for this reason MyHostCamp needs to release a statement.

(read more...)
Read More

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In 2016, Will Pennsylvania be the Bellweather?

State of the Race: NC (Post-Labor Day Edition)

HRC's Superdelegate Sleight of Hand

Bribery complaint filed against Landrieu

Apple Bites Man (again)

On McCain's receipt of the 2008 GOP nod

GOP's crumbling base evident in Free Republic financial receipts

And Thus, the Woodwork Begins to Utter its Revelations

Out on a limb: Baker findings the GOP's October Surprise?

Talkin' Ma Bell Merger Monopoly Blues

Nobody Knows You When You're Down and Out (Lieberman Redux)

Release a statement, MyHostCamp