Hi kids. It has been a very long time since I’ve posted at DKos. Not that I expect a welcome wagon or much attention, but when the political itch scratches, I guess I picture DKos as remaining as a great place to post my thoughts.
In any case, I wanted to outline what may be my only pontification of the 2016 electoral year. A diary far shorter than any from years past, I’ll post a few thoughts here and maybe I’ll return as the year progresses.
In short: keep an eye on Pennsylvania, which I think, at the moment, is the bellweather state for 2016.
Now, part of this is old hat. Pennsylvania has long been considered a battleground state -- this, despite the fact that democrats have won six times in a row. Given its demographics and constituency, it is a tantalizing target for the GOP… and yet they haven't cracked the formula in recent history.
Why, then, is Pennsylvania so important this year? More after the cut.
Simply put, as it stands now, Trump has what I'd consider a very narrow path to victory. Per the latest numbers on multiple sites, it’s evident that he could win OH and FL and still fall short in the electoral vote count. For more on this, check out 538, obviously, or one of my old favorites, electoral-vote.com.
You can, of course, play with the numbers yourself, and examine the difficulties Trump has going for him. But in any case, it is evident to me that Trump hasn’t got too many options, and for him to have any success at all, he’ll have to go full-bore in PA.
If Trump pulls in the Keystone State, it would be more than simply a signal that tides might be turning (for the worse) -- it would very simply be a prize critical for him to win and keep his path to the presidency open.
If Trump wins PA, all of us here could possibly — but not necessarily — be in for a long night. If Trump loses PA, I don't see a very likely path forward for a Trump victory.
Either way: Things could change over the next couple of months, which would make PA not as relevant as it currently looks to me, but simply put, looking at the current map:
- I expect to see a great deal of money dumped into Pennsylvania over the next few months, as well as significant time spent in the state by GOP surrogates.
- It seems to me that the Democratic party needs to keep the state closer than ever on its radar, and not expect it to be a “gimmie”.
- If you’re a PA voter (which I am not), you’ll need to strongly encourage your friends to vote this year.
- Keep an eye on this state over the next few weeks and months — it could very well be the proverbial canary in the coalmine.
Maybe this isn’t anything new to some, or maybe it is — I haven’t seen this postulated anywhere yet. In any case, I figured I’d put a few thoughts out there for general discussion. Thanks for your time.